Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Istanbul, Turkey.

Background and Objectives: The official number of daily cases and deaths are the most prominent indicators used to plan actions against the COVID-19 pandemic but are insufficient to see the real impact. Official numbers vary due to testing policy, reporting methods, etc. Therefore, critical interventions are likely to lose their effectiveness and better-standardized indicators like excess deaths/mortality are needed. In this study, excess deaths in Istanbul were examined and a web-based monitor was developed. Methods: Daily all-cause deaths data between January 1, 2015- November 11, 2021 in Istanbul is used to estimate the excess deaths. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the % increase in the number of deaths was calculated as the ratio of excess deaths to expected deaths (P-Scores). The ratio of excess deaths to official figures (T) was also examined. Results: The total number of official and excess deaths in Istanbul are 24.218 and 37.514, respectively. The ratio of excess deaths to official deaths is 1.55. During the first three death waves, maximum P-Scores were 71.8, 129.0, and 116.3% respectively. Conclusion: Excess mortality in Istanbul is close to the peak scores in Europe. 38.47% of total excess deaths could be considered as underreported or indirect deaths. To re-optimize the non-pharmaceutical interventions there is a need to monitor the real impact beyond the official figures. In this study, such a monitoring tool was created for Istanbul. The excess deaths are more reliable than official figures and it can be used as a gold standard to estimate the impact more precisely.

COVID-19 pneumonia in patients with impaired fasting glucose, newly diagnosed diabetes and pre-existing diabetes: a tertiary center experience.

COVID-19 infection is known to increase mortality in patients with diabetes. We aim to demonstrate the differences in disease course and clinical outcomes of patients with COVID-19 regarding the presence of impaired fasting glucose, pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM) or new-onset DM. 236 patients with positive reverse transcription-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 were included in this single-center, retrospective observational study between March 2020 and May 2021. Laboratory results, comorbidities, medications and imaging findings were noted. Logistic regression was used to estimate associated factors for admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). 43 patients with normal glucose, 53 with impaired fasting glucose, 60 with newly diagnosed DM, and 80 with pre-existing DM were classified. Patients with pre-existing DM had higher fasting glucose and glycated hemoglobin than the other groups (p<0.001 for all). Patients with newly diagnosed DM were more likely to need dexamethasone 6 mg (p=0.001). In both newly diagnosed diabetes and impaired fasting glucose groups, 250 mg methylprednisolone was needed at higher rates (p=0.002). Newly diagnosed DM had higher rates of intubation (21.6%) and more mortality (20.0%) (p=0.045 and p=0.028, respectively). Mortality and hospitalization in the ICU were lower in the group receiving antidiabetic treatment. The risk of ICU attendance was higher in patients with impaired fasting glucose (HR=1.71, 95% CI: 0.48 to 6.08) and newly diagnosed DM (HR=1.88, 95% CI: 0.57 to 6.17), compared with pre-existing DM and non-diabetics. Newly diagnosed DM and impaired fasting glucose are associated with increased mortality and intubation in inpatients with COVID-19.

Nowcasting and Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 and Healthcare Demand in Turkey, a Modeling Study.

Background: This study aims to estimate the total number of infected people, evaluate the effects of NPIs on the healthcare system, and predict the expected number of cases, deaths, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in Turkey. Methods: This study was carried out according to three dimensions. In the first, the actual number of infected people was estimated. In the second, the expected total numbers of infected people, deaths, hospitalizations have been predicted in the case of no intervention. In the third, the distribution of the expected number of infected people and deaths, and ICU and non-ICU bed needs over time has been predicted via a SEIR-based simulator (TURKSAS) in four scenarios. Results: According to the number of deaths, the estimated number of infected people in Turkey on March 21 was 123,030. In the case of no intervention the expected number of infected people is 72,091,595 and deaths is 445,956, the attack rate is 88.1%, and the mortality ratio is 0.54%. The ICU bed capacity in Turkey is expected to be exceeded by 4.4-fold and non-ICU bed capacity by 3.21-fold. In the second and third scenarios compliance with NPIs makes a difference of 94,303 expected deaths. In both scenarios, the predicted peak value of occupied ICU and non-ICU beds remains below Turkey's capacity. Discussion: Predictions show that around 16 million people can be prevented from being infected and 94,000 deaths can be prevented by full compliance with the measures taken. Modeling epidemics and establishing decision support systems is an important requirement.